Ok, some time has gone by. Ive let things percolate. Ive digested, Ive read, Ive consulted the colors of the wind. And revised some of my thoughts. Those that changed I have placed astericks next too.
Without further ado, the draft 2.0 (comments stay the same unless I have something to add or the pick changed). Format is the same: team, perceived needs, player.
IDL, EDGE, IOL, WR
QB Kyler Murray
I dont agree with them doing this but it seems pretty sure they are.
- San Francisco
CB, S, EDGE, WR
EDGE Nick Bosa
The best player in the draft and Im not happy this guy will be in the NFC West.
**3. NY Jets
EDGE, CB, OT, IDL
Old pick: DL3T Quinnen Williams
New pic: EDGE Josh Allen
Wililams rates higher for me but Allen is at a sexier position the marktet values more. The Jets go with Allen.
EDGE, CB, RB, LB
Old pick: EDGE Josh Allen
New pick: EDGE Montez Sweat
They are going to be tempted by Quinnen Williams and that might be the smarter play, but they need to address an anemic pass rush that was created with Mack's departure and cant get too cute trying to fill it.
**5 Tampa Bay
LB, EDGE, CB
Old pick: OT Jonah Williams
New Pick: OT Andre Dillard
I did the first draft "blind", without looking around at other mocks. It seems Andre Dillard is rated higher than Johah on most peoples boards and Tampa Bay is likely to go with that then.
They have to decide if Winston is what they want to do at QB . Dillard will give them time to evaluate.
**6 NY Giants
EDGE, OT, CB, QB
Old pick: DL3T Ed Oliver
New pick: DL3T Quinnen Williams
The cascading begins. Williams is a force and the Giants wont ignore it.
I think some people want them to go QB here but I just couldnt justify it. Williams will reinforce the D and be a wrecking ball.
EDGE, OT, TE
OT Jawaan Taylor
They are hoping Foles is the answer, post Bortles. Taylor will be his new best friend.
CB, TE, EDGE
Old pick: EDGE Montez Sweat
New Pick: DL3T Ed Oliver
Strictly speaking not their top need but Oliver will be too tempting to Matt Patricia and his versatility will make the Lion's defense better immediately.
IDL, EDGE, OT
Old pick: CB Greedy Williams
New pick: OT Jonah Williams
They pick a cornerstone OT to solidify their OL.
QB, LB, IDL
Old pick: IDL Devin White
New pick: QB Drew Lock
If I were the GM, Id go with white. But with the draft approaching, people are falling in love with QBs. I left a lot out in the first version thinking teams may have learned to lay off, but the chatter out there now makes me believe otherwise. The Bronocos choose Lock and he will have the luxury of sitting a year.
LB, OT, TE
EDGE Clelin Ferrell
This could be early but the Bengals need playmakers on D.
12 Green Bay
S, TE, OT
WRF DK Metcalf
Green Bay and Rodgers just seem to work when they have lots of WR that are legit threats more than a TE. DK Metcalf will take pressure off Adams.
QB, OT, EDGE, IOL
CB Byron Murphy
I think I believe those that say Miami is in a long term re-set and wont feel compelled to grab a QB this year, in a down year for QBs.
New comment: Tempted to go OL here, but if Byron Murphy is still here you take him.
IDL, EDGE, CB
EDGE Brian Burns
Vic Beasely isnt cutting it as their main pass rusher off the edge. This might be a reach for Burns but if you want an EDGE rusher these days you have to be prepared to stretch out for it!
WR, IOL, EDGE
WR AJ Brown
Washinton needs some real threats at WR, AJ Brown will help.
EDGE, OT, S, IOL
WR Hakeem Butler
Cam needs weapons and Butler should provide that.
CLE CB, S, IDL, LB
QB Dwayne Haskins
I considered that they might be able to trade this to Arizona for Rosen. But with how the draft seemed to fall in my opinion I thought they might be better off keeping the pick and Haskins and getting and extra year of him compared to getting Rosen's already 1 year old contract. If they think Rosen is better they might make the trade here.
IOL, OT, IDL
DL3T Rashan Gary
That defensive line used to be a strength..its not really now. This gets them back on track.
EDGE, IOL, WR
Old pick: EDGE Jachai Polite
New PIck: EDGE Brian Burns
An immediate upgrade. Polite is falling, Burns is rising. Polite may go in the 3rd now, and I think thats a bargain. In the meantime, Burns will fit in nicely.
WR, LB, CB, EDGE
Old pick:FS Deionte Thompson
New pick: ILB Devin White
Never was happy with the first pick but good find an "ah hah!" guy for them. Now we put Devin White and that fits like a glove and fills a gap thats been there since Ryan Shazier was injured.
- Seattle --> Oakland
S, EDGE, CB
TRADE1 - RAIDERS TJ Hockenson
Obviously this is a Seahawks board so I spent the longest time on this. Obviously Seattle wants to trade back. I tried to find something realistic. I felt the Raiders would be willing to move up so they get TE Hockenson. They lost their starting TE from last year and Gruden was unhappy about it. Carr likes going there so this gives them the TE they like best. It could be TE Noah Fant instead.
Seattle gives up #21, and gets #27 and #99.
**Added comment: I find this even more realistic now. I feel there MIGHT even be a bidding war around here somewhere as the Patriots right around this pick are going to get antsy for Noah Fant or TJ.
**22 Baltimore --> New England
WR, LB, IOL, EDGE
Old pick: Baltimore takes TE Noah Fant
New Pick: NE take TE Noah Fant
The Ravens really need a WR, but the value here is TE and its also a need and might fit their QB best. However, they arent married to it and will take the trade, move down and pick up ammo to fill their many needs. NE gets their Gronk replacement, one of only 2 TEs in the draft that can be that do it all type TE.
OT, IOL, S
Old pick: OT Andre Dillard
New pick: OT Kaleb McGary
QB Watson was sacked far, far too much last year. McGary will bring that number down. This might be a reach but I couldnt make the numbers work for them to trade up and get Jonah Williams, and if they move back Philly will take their OT.
CHI EDGE, CB, RB, LB
RB Josh Jacobs
Only one RB really worth the first round this year and Oakland is the team in the situation they can use a pick there.
S, OT, EDGE, RB
Old pick: FS Juan Thornhill
New pick: FS C. Gardner -Johnson
Good value here for what some people might say is the best FS in the draft. Need a tackle but I dont see value at 25 for that. Thornhill had a great combine but so did Gardner Johnson. Gardner Johnson gets that edge here. Eagles are a candidate to move up if they can find a partner as they really need one of the top for OTs.
IDL, WR, S, CB
DL3T Christian Wilkins
No deep holes but Wilkins will solidify the interior of the D line.
27.Oakland --> Seattle --> Green Bay
DAL EDGE, CB, RB, LB
TRADE1 - SEAHAWKS.
TRADE2 PACKERS DL1T Dexter Lawrence
The Seahawks trade down a second time. They send both picks from Oakland to Green Bay (#27, #99) and get #30, #107, and #111.
The Packers move up to secure Dexter Lawrence who will anchor the middle of their D line. The Chargers would be tempted to take Lawrence if he was still on the board.
OT, IDL, WR
Old pick: CB Amani Oruwariye
New pick: CB DeAndre Baker
They might be tempted to go QB or OT but Id still consider those reaches with what is there. Baker will help them keep pace with the Chiefs passing game and raise the talent level of the defense.
**29 Kansas City
EDGE, CB, LB
Old pick: DL5T Zach Allen
New Pick: CB Greedy Williams
The defence needs help every where and Greedy Williams will help neutralize some of the dangerous WRs in the AFC.
**30.Green Bay --> Seattle --> New England
S, TE, OT
Old pick: Seattle pick OG Chris Lundstom
New pick: New England picks DL3T DreMont Jones
This time around a third trade seemed possible and likely. NE may want to pick up DreMont Jones to fill the middle before he becomes a possible pick of the Rams who had a horrible defense and lost Suh.
EDGE, LB, CB
ILB Devin Bush
The Rams got to the Super Bowl last year but still had some obvious holes. Bush probably wont really fall this far but if he does is a steal.
**32.New England --> Seattle
EDGE, IDL, WR
Old pick: NE takes QB Drew Lock
New Pick: Seattle takes OG Chris Lindstrom
I am tempted to put one of the highly rated EDGE rushers here.. but they are rated that high because of the position and I just cant escape the logic that the best guard helps your team in relative terms more than the 7th best EDGE guy does. Nasir Adderly or Juan Thompson are also considerations here , as is obviously one more trade down which I didnt consider as it gets too complicated at this point to really be something useful to mock.
So.. in the end Seattle gets the best guard in the draft while ending up with picks:
32, 84, 107, 11, 124, 134, 159. By round: 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5
I feel weird about the number of highly regarded players I have still on the board.. DL5T Zack Allen, S Adderly, S Thompston, QB Daniel Jones, etc but the board dictated my picks so maybe some players will just fall. I still am probably light on QBs as well. I dont think the Dolphins go that direction though so maybe not.