@sammyc521 said in 30 mil. + for Russell??:
@lymon said in 30 mil. + for Russell??:
The big problem I find with your hypothesis is you seem to think quality/franchise QBs are easy to find. Now, we did great with our rookie contract QB, but that I believe is not the norm. A very good QB is hard to find....IMO.
Last QBs to win in the Superbowl (and the losing QB)
Superbowl Wining QB Losing QB
52 | Nick Foles ($5M; Carson Wentz $6.6M) | Tom Brady ($20.5M)
51 | Brady ($20.5M) | Matt Ryan ($20.7M)
50 | Peyton Manning ($17M) | Cam Newton ($20.7M)
49 | Brady ($9M) | Russell Wilson ( $750K)
48 | Wilson ($750K) | Manning ($19.2M)
47 | Joe Flacco ($5.9M) | Colin Kaepernick ($1.2M)
46 | Eli Manning ($16.5M) | Brady ($18M)
Only 4 Rookies played in the Superbowl on their 1st deal; only on of them was a 1st round pick (Flacco), the other 3 were on their rookie deals but not a 1st round pick (Wilson [2x) and Kaepernick}. Wentz was a 1st round pick but did not play in the Superbowl. It doesn't mean that you can only win if a QB is on a rookie deal because so many QBs suck.
Of these past 7 Superbowls, the QBs only had 4 out of 14 that played on a Rookie deal.
A rookie deal helps a team spend money elsewhere and retain core vets, but all of one of those past 7 SBs did two rookie deal QBs play against each other.
Hmm.. but the numbers youre using arent actually correct, and youre not looking at them , in my opinion correctly. You listed 7 Super Bowls.. but there are just 10 quarterbacks there, not 14. Of those 10, 4 of them are playing on a rookie deal. One of them is playing for rookie contract type money because he was deemed a "failure" (and then won Super Bowl MVP), and one of them is playing on a contract that is well below market value (Brady), and one that was playing for somewhat less than market value (Peyton Manning was offered more by two other teams).
So,. 40% of of the last 10 Super Bowl QBs have been rookies, and 1 of them was a re tread.
Look what just happened to all the Minnessota Viking QBs from last year. All of them previously were considered garbage or journeymen at best. So they signed low contracts. So the Vikings had lots of money for the supporting cast..which made those QBs look great.
Once Flacco signed his second contract, hes never been near a Super Bowl. Once Russel Wilson signed his second contract, he hasnt been back and last year we even missed the playoffs and are no lock to make them this year.
There are a lot of moving parts so its hard to see..and people actually get offended saying youre insulting a QB by saying he needs pieces around him..but although its hard to find a good rookie deal QB, Id say its looking likes its actually harder to find a QB who you can pay elite QB money to and still have money and chemistry enough left over to win the Super Bowl.
When it came to Russel Wilson's deal I was particularly torn. At the time we were still a run first team that threw fewer passes than any other team. Its just economics -- youre investing a huge amount of limited resources into a phase of the game that wasnt as important to your team. And since then, weve increasingly thrown the ball. The problem with that is the rest of the team, and the philosophy of how the team is put together doesnt support that. We became a pass first team but with a receiving corps that isnt on par with other pass first teams. And you run into the further problem that before we were built an interesting, "moneyball"ish way -- while the rest of the league was a passing league , we were a running team. Teams were spending their money to defeat the PASS.. so their 2 elite CBs that they spent millions on were spent chasing our 500k WRs about, while we ran the ball down their throats against their D line that lacked elite run stoppers because people build to stop the pass.
Russel Wilson's second contract stops all that.
Its not easy to find a QB as good as Wilson, but its even harder to build a team the Peyton Manning Way.. pay an elite QB whatever he wants and hope all your draft choices work out.
Find a Kaep, a Wilson, a Flacco..if you can.. and use your left over 25 million to get/keep FIVE other players that are good.. or 3 near elite players, or a shut down corner and elite pass rusher.
If we go to 30 million on Wilson, the opportunity cost is huge, more than the actual money... its 30 million youre not spending anywhere else and its hard to overcome.
If you spend it, you know two things -- youre building just like every other team, so you dont have any competitive advantage built in, and you know you literally need to hit on nearly every draft choice to keep the talent level up -- and it also says you know youre going to develop those draft picks but the best of them youre going to let walk after their first contract.
I am torn because I love Wilson..but there are serious inefficiencies in the market. I really thought last year was going to open peoples and teams eyes doing things differently, but it didnt.