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Off season for Seattle


    I loved this article for obvious reasons. He hits on a slightly more aggressive early down approach and better decision making on 4th downs. Thoughts?

  • 100% agree on point #2.

    #2 Return to a Nickel DEF with a better slot/nickel corner. I think all the Pete-speak had been getting to everyone. A former DB himself would never turn away from a Nickel DEF if he had the right player for the job. None of their draft picks panned out and the younger guys showed how inexperience at the wrong time could kill a DEF stand.

    For #1 (Increase Early Down Passing) goes against what makes this team function; they spend money on cheaper players for the run game because WR and Pass-blocking OL are 3x more expensive than run-grade OL's. I don't really take an issue with it but it's not cost effective when 20+ are willing to pay those pass-blocking OLs a premium.

    For #3 (4th Down Decision Making) I don't have an issue with; but after the season you look at the results... we won more playoff games than 3 of the 4 top teams in 4th Down Rate (Baltimore, Buffalo & Philadelphia). I agree that teams should be more prepared when put into these 4th down situations or end-of-half situations. Just like the Superbowl, I can't believe Shannahan didn't take a timeout with 1:40+ on the clock when the Chiefs were 4th and long. Then he wasted another 35+ seconds after 1st down before they converted and then took a timeout... what?

    And #4 (Good Contract Decision) this is hard because it's the reality of the NFL that you have to pay some of your stars but you can't keep them all. I think of all the people to extend, I would really only focus on CB Shaquill Griffin. Signing him after his third year before he goes past his 4th will help Seattle secure a better deal. I don't think you can justify Clowney and the money it would cost just because it would be so much; I am not worried about his production because he's more valuable than that but I'm afraid it'll be too much for the Seahawks.

    I am iffy on extending Carson because RBs have a terrible shelf-life and Carson has already two injury years.

  • #1.. More passing on passing neutral situations., really ideally.. Id like them to have no stance at all on this. Id like them to go into each game deciding to "be like water". Plan to be a balanced team, build the team to be balanced.. then each game find out where your advantages are. If this week calls for a BUNCH of passes because it looks like our line will be able to hold and that they wont be able to cover our best weapons. Next week if it looks like unless they completely sell out they cant stop the run, then run it 40 times between Carson and Penny.

    Thats not going to happen. Its really hard and the bias is for specialization. So, Im fine with balanced play calling with more Read Option.. let Russell earn his money by doing what he did to earn the contract. He is still agile and straight line speed is the last thing to go.

    #2 Upgrade the CB room. I mean, straight up , improve the talent level on the defense. Take a hard, straight, truthful look. Because we are still all under hypnosis it still feels like. I keep seeing that Griffin was good, Wagner still has it, Ford was good, Clowney was a monster, Diggs turned us around, McDougal is the solid glue... But..unless Norton was telling everyone to line up wrong and look at the wrong thing every play..that cant be true.

    As far as Base vs Nickel.. I think people are getting too caught up in the words. The word is not the thing. I can CALL you whatever I want.. it doesnt change what youre doing. You can say it was Base defense , but if the guy covering the Left Flat in the zone is nearly as fast as the DB that would be there, but tackles better and has better instincts.. what is the difference? Like when Chancellor played all the time on the line, and the first season announcers were saying "well, hes a safety..he shouldnt be up there all the time"..Well, if he is as big as a linebacker, and as strong as a lineback..the only difference is hes faster so we put him at safety.. what is the issue? Now youre just talking about the letter next to his name on the football card. The question really is.. who do you want covering the short flat area of the zone? Did you want Kendricks or Amadi? and by the way, the base defense ended up being nearly as effective agains the pass as the Dime in the articles charts. I think its best to look at the player himself, not the technical position. Its not a Madden game..these are football players..not positions. The issue most of the time in base was safety play.. so the short and medium zone defenders had to drop too far giving crossing routes and slants up over and over..

    All that said, a good nickel would give flexiblity and the opportunity to play more man.. giving more options..and thats a plus too. I dont really care what position, I just want 3 dynamic players the offense has to account for and you can get big plays out of occasionally.

    #3. The biggest problem in the article is this section because its like no one has talked to a mathematician.. Ive said this again and again.. it literally doesnt matter that ..for example.. 78% of something has worked the past 30 years in the NFL. That only tells you the gross mean. It means NOTHING for YOUR TEAM. If 80% of the time a team can gain 1 yard on 4th and 1.. you should go for it.. IF YOURE BUILT for that, and if the other teams make up doesnt change things. If Joey Hunt is your center and Penny is your RB.. you probably shouldnt go for it. Hunt cant run block for push, and Penny is an outsider runner who is often stuffed between the tackles. So THAT make up of offense WONT make it 80% of the time. Football is not rolling dice, its not flipping coins. Its NOT an exercise in probability. It doesnt mean there is no room for stats means it has to be the right ones and it has to be to take into account many factors that the amateurs arent.

    As an example, everyone says that Carroll is calling plays as if he still has a top 5 defense.. Carroll knows what he has on defense. But he can also do the math, and has his people doing it ahead of time, knowing what percentage of time the opposing teams specific offense will be put into positions they have to punt or face 3rd and longs..and he knows if he has kept a play in his pocket for the most important 3rd down.. so its better to punt, he figures. And he is also most likely figuring in who he has at punter, thinking that unlike the statistical mean teams of the stat world.. he has a real good chance of pinning the other team inside the 5..limiting their play calling even further . This all adds in..

    And again, that said, I very much want them to go for it more on 4th. But the analysis in the article is awful.. 48 yard field goals in 2020 are NOT coin tosses. They are made at a rate of 75 or 80% Id guess. 50 to 53 yarders I would guess are also over 55%. And 3 points isnt just 3 points in a vacuum. One thing the casual pseudo analytics people never talk about is how the made FG changes play calling the rest of the game.

    Anyway..moving on..

    #4. Good contract decisions. Well..yea..everyone is in favor of that. Its just hard to know which are. I wouldnt reward Carsons fumble and injury plagued season. I wouldnt keep Britt when Hunt was awful but we didnt really notice a difference except on A gap blitzes and runs. Griffin I want to extend but I want to know what he wants.. becuase , interceptions DO matter. They change games. And he doesnt get any. You cant pay him like a top CB if he never ever takes possessions away.. a pass break up on early downs is just like a run for 0 yards... Its a good thing for sure, but its not a take away. And because he doesnt get the take aways, teams still target him..he doesnt close a side of the field like a shut down corner..because the worst that happens is an incomplete pass. You couldnt try Sherman long because you knew there was a chance hed pick it.

    Clowney is such a hard call for me. Hard to price what he meant.. and how much his injury effected things.. IF Norton can use him right, I think Id probably pay. Ive come around on it. But there is also a chance he is the Defensive Jimmy Graham .. a great weapon that just wont be used right by us so isnt worth as much to us.....

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